As Bihar gears up for the final showdown on Friday, November 14, all eyes are now on the Bihar Election Final Exit Poll. Counting begins at 8 AM across 46 centres in 38 districts, where the fate of 2,600 candidates—chosen by a record-breaking 7.4 crore voters—will finally be revealed. For the first time since 1951, Bihar recorded a massive 67% voter turnout, setting the stage for one of the most unpredictable elections in the state’s history.
The BJP, upbeat from the beginning, has projected a sweeping victory. Union Home Minister Amit Shah has repeatedly claimed that the NDA will cross 160 seats with ease, a narrative that has sparked early celebrations in party circles. From floral decorations to fireworks, from gulaal to giant garlands, BJP workers in Patna have already begun victory preparations. One local party worker even ordered 501 kilograms of laddoos ahead of the counting day.
Most national exit polls have also predicted a strong performance by the BJP–JDU alliance, leading to a widely held belief that the NDA is marching towards a “comfortable majority.” But the Bihar Election Final Exit Poll by Nazarbandi.in tells a completely different story—one that points toward a nail-biting, down-to-the-wire contest.
Nazarbandi’s pre-poll opinion survey published on October 14 had already hinted that the battle would be far tighter than mainstream projections. The report showed the NDA marginally ahead with 126–134 seats, while the INDIA bloc was predicted to secure 109–117 seats. The gap was narrow, and independents plus smaller parties were projected to win the remaining seats.
Within the NDA, the survey estimated the BJP at 70–80 seats, JD(U) at 40–50 seats, and the smaller allies such as LJP and HAM together at 10–15 seats. On the other hand, the INDIA bloc was projected to see the RJD bag 60–70 seats, the Congress around 25–30, and the Left parties 15–20 seats.
On November 11, Nazarbandi published its first booth-level Bihar Election Final Exit Poll, once again demonstrating a razor-thin margin. The early exit poll projected the NDA at 118–136 seats and the INDIA bloc at 103–121 seats, with independents holding 6–12 seats—enough to tilt the balance.
But the most significant numbers arrived in Nazarbandi’s Final Exit Poll, released on the eve of counting. And the results rewrite the entire political script.
According to the Bihar Election Final Exit Poll, the INDIA bloc is expected to win 117 seats. Within the alliance, the RJD could emerge as the single-largest party with 77 seats, while the Congress may win 21 seats and the Left parties 15 seats. INDIA’s smaller partners may together pick up 4 seats.
The NDA, meanwhile, is projected to win 120 seats—just two short of the magic number. The BJP may secure 74 seats, JD(U) 40 seats, and the LJP+RLM combine around 10 seats.
However, the most critical aspect of this Final Exit Poll is the performance of independents and non-aligned candidates. They are expected to capture 6 decisive seats, positioning them as kingmakers in a hung assembly.
With the Bihar Assembly’s strength at 243 and the majority mark at 122, neither alliance appears capable of forming the government alone. The Bihar Election Final Exit Poll clearly indicates that the next government may depend on last-minute negotiations, post-poll alliances, and the unpredictable decisions of independents.
As counting begins, only one thing is certain—the battle for Patna will be one of the tightest in decades. The numbers may swing, but the message from the Bihar Election Final Exit Poll is loud and clear: Bihar is heading for a tense, cliffhanger finish.
