Najarbandi Exclusive: With months to go before the Bihar Election 2025, political activity across the state has reached fever pitch. The air is charged with rallies, shifting alliances, and intense campaign battles. According to an exclusive opinion poll conducted by Najarbandi Digital Team, the NDA (National Democratic Alliance) holds a narrow edge over the INDIA alliance, though the contest remains too close to call.
Bihar has a total of 243 Assembly seats, with the real fight unfolding between the two dominant coalitions — NDA and INDIA. The NDA bloc comprises the BJP, Janata Dal (United) led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, and smaller allies like LJP (Ram Vilas Paswan faction), HAM, and RLM. On the other side, the INDIA alliance features RJD, Congress (INC), and the Left Front, forming a strong anti-NDA front.
Seat-sharing and poll projections
According to the Najarbandi survey conducted across 32 districts and involving 1.8 lakh respondents, the NDA is projected to win 126–134 seats, while the INDIA alliance may secure 109–117. Independents and smaller parties are likely to take the remaining seats.
Breaking it down further, the BJP could bag 70–80 seats, JDU may secure 40–50, and smaller NDA partners might claim around 10–15. On the INDIA side, RJD is expected to win 60–70, Congress around 25–30, and the Left Front 15–20 seats.
The survey results suggest a tight race, with the NDA slightly ahead but within a narrow margin — leaving room for last-minute swings or political realignments.
Why the NDA holds a slim advantage
Nitish Kumar’s governance record, coupled with BJP’s strong organizational machinery and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s enduring popularity, continues to anchor NDA’s campaign. The poll indicates that issues like infrastructure, electricity, and women’s safety resonate with rural voters who credit the NDA government for visible development.
INDIA alliance: Strengths and hurdles
Meanwhile, the RJD–Congress–Left combine is banking on public discontent over unemployment, inflation, and education. Led by Tejashwi Yadav, the INDIA bloc’s promise of better job opportunities and social welfare has found traction among young and urban voters. However, internal leadership disputes and Congress’s weak ground presence remain key challenges.
Youth and digital media to decide the outcome
Bihar’s young voters — aged between 18 and 30 — now number over 3 crore, many of them first-time voters. According to the survey, 48% back the NDA, 43% favor INDIA, and 9% remain undecided. Their final choice could prove decisive in determining who forms the next government.
Social media is another crucial battleground. The poll shows the NDA is more active on Facebook, X (Twitter), and YouTube, especially in rural areas. In contrast, the INDIA bloc, particularly RJD, is focusing on digital outreach in urban constituencies. The online narrative war could shape late-stage voter sentiment before polling day.
Political experts weigh in
Analysts believe the Bihar Election 2025 will likely be one of the most closely contested in recent years. Though the NDA currently enjoys a narrow lead, any late surge in INDIA’s campaign or a shift in alliances could flip the outcome. If the NDA crosses 130 seats, Nitish Kumar is expected to return as Chief Minister. Conversely, if INDIA surpasses 110, a coalition government led by RJD and Congress might emerge.
As the countdown begins, Bihar’s political battlefield is heating up. Every rally, slogan, and social media post could sway undecided voters. The state is once again set to witness a high-stakes democratic duel — NDA vs INDIA, development vs change, and Nitish Kumar vs Tejashwi Yadav.
The final verdict, however, rests with Bihar’s people — the ultimate arbiters of this political thriller.
