The Bihar election trends have drawn a clear picture as counting continues—NDA leading with a massive margin, leaving all rival alliances trailing far behind. From the very first round of counting, the trend strongly favoured the BJP-JDU alliance, and as hours passed, this lead only grew firmer. With NDA leading 200+ seats, the mandate appears to be tilting decisively toward the ruling coalition, marking another major political shift in the state.
One of the most unexpected turns in this year’s Bihar election has been the rise of AIMIM. The party is currently ahead in five seats, a development that not only strengthens its organisational foothold but also signals a new wave of minority vote consolidation in key regions. The bigger shock, however, is that AIMIM has overtaken Congress, which is leading in only three to four seats. This raises serious questions about Congress’s shrinking influence and the future of its traditional vote bank.
The broader picture shows NDA leading 203 seats, triggering what many political observers are describing as a “saffron cyclone sweeping across Bihar.” The Mahagathbandhan, on the other hand, appears severely weakened, with its lead stagnating in the mid-30s. This widening gap indicates a dramatic fall in support for the opposition bloc.
RJD, the backbone of the Mahagathbandhan, is currently ahead in 26 seats. Although the party maintains control in its core regions, it has not been able to recreate the sweeping momentum it enjoyed during the 2020 election. Analysts note that despite its aggressive campaigning, RJD’s ground performance has been overshadowed by the well-organised and highly targeted NDA strategy.
The BJP has once again established its dominance, with the party leading in 91 seats. This strong performance reaffirms the party’s deep organisational strength, sustained outreach, and loyal voter base across Bihar. For NDA, this BJP lead alone puts the coalition miles ahead of the opposition.
JDU, led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, is ahead in 81 seats, reinforcing that despite recent political turbulence, alliance reshuffles, and leadership questions, Nitish Kumar’s influence remains firmly rooted across multiple constituencies. Together, the BJP and JDU have crossed the 170-seat mark, building a comfortable majority for NDA even without the smaller allies.
Among those allies, the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) – LJPRV is showing a notable presence with 21 seats in the lead, sparking new political discussions about its rising relevance in Bihar’s evolving electoral map. On the left front, CPI(ML), CPI, and CPM together are leading in five seats. While the Left has retained pockets of influence, it has not been able to produce any dramatic gains this time.
Congress remains one of the weakest performers this election, leading in just three seats. For a party already battling setbacks across India, the Bihar numbers mark another worrying chapter. Political analysts suggest that Congress’s vote base has fragmented significantly, with both RJD and AIMIM making inroads into its traditional support zones.
Although the counting is still underway, the overall trend shows NDA leading with near-complete dominance. For many experts, this reflects a broader voter preference for stability over alliance reshuffles and leadership uncertainty. The combined effect of AIMIM’s rise, Congress’s decline, and RJD’s limited surge suggests that Bihar’s political equation is shifting toward a new alignment.
With NDA leading 200+ seats and Mahagathbandhan struggling at around 34 seats, the mandate appears increasingly one-sided. Unless a dramatic turn occurs, Bihar seems poised to witness yet another NDA-led government.
