The Bihar Exit Poll 2025 projections released after the conclusion of the second phase of voting on November 11 indicate a clear edge for the BJP-JDU-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Multiple pollsters have forecast that the NDA is likely to cross the majority mark of 122 seats in the 243-member Bihar assembly, while the Mahagathbandhan, led by the RJD and Congress, appears to be trailing at a distant second.
The second and final phase of polling saw a voter turnout of 67.14% till 5 pm, slightly higher than the 65.08% turnout reported during the first phase on November 6. The counting of votes will take place on November 14, after which the official results will determine whether Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s coalition retains power or whether Tejashwi Yadav’s alliance can stage a comeback.
Among the earliest exit polls, Peoples Pulse projected 133-159 seats for the NDA, giving the Mahagathbandhan 75-101 seats. Similarly, People’s Insight has also predicted a decisive lead for the NDA, estimating 133-148 seats, while placing the Mahagathbandhan in the 87-102 seat range.
Matrize, another prominent survey agency, has projected a landslide victory for the NDA with 147-167 seats, suggesting a strong consolidation of votes in favor of the BJP and JDU. Dainik Bhaskar’s exit poll aligns with this trend, anticipating 145-160 seats for the NDA and 73-91 seats for its rival coalition. P-Marq, too, has forecast 142-162 seats for the NDA, signaling rising confidence among pollsters that Bihar may witness a repeat mandate.
For the Mahagathbandhan, the numbers fall short of the required majority in almost all exit poll projections. The RJD, which emerged as the single largest party in the 2020 Bihar election despite losing the coalition battle, is again projected to come second. Tejashwi Yadav has centered his campaign around unemployment, youth issues, and anti-incumbency, but if the exit polls prove accurate, the strategy may not have converted into sufficient seats.
Interestingly, the exit polls have also measured Chief Minister preference, revealing a close contest between Tejashwi Yadav (32%) and Nitish Kumar (30%). Political strategist-turned-campaigner Prashant Kishor, whose Jan Suraaj movement contested selectively, registered 8%, suggesting his presence has begun to make electoral ripples, though not large enough to shift seat outcomes in 2025.
The NDA’s internal seat-sharing remained structured, with both the BJP and JD(U) contesting 101 seats each, while smaller allies LJP (RV), HAM(S), and RLM contested the remaining constituencies. On the opposite side, the Mahagathbandhan saw the RJD leading with 143 seats, followed by Congress with 61 seats, and smaller Left parties adding weight in select regions.
However, exit polls are not always accurate. The 2020 Bihar elections serve as a reminder. Then, several major exit polls predicted a sweeping victory for the Mahagathbandhan and suggested the NDA would fall short. Yet, the NDA won with 125 seats, securing another term for Nitish Kumar.
All eyes are now on November 14, when the votes will decide whether history repeats itself or Bihar witnesses a political shift.
